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‪‪United States midterm elections 2018‬‬

The United States midterm elections 2018‬‬ polls have opened in America today for the first time since Donald Trump took office, with majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate hanging in the balance.

Mr Trump, the US president, has used a nationwide campaign blitz to issue dire warnings about the threat posed by illegal immigration and claim credit for the soaring US economy.

Democrats, spearheaded in the final few days by former president Barack Obama, have focussed on healthcare, an issue ranked high on voters’ list of priorities and one the party leadership believes is a Republican weak spot.

On paper, the Democrats should take back the House. They need to flip just 23 seats to secure a majority – more than doable given historical trends and Mr Trump's low personal approval rating.

Winning back the Senate is considerably harder, despite the Republicans only holding a slim 51-to-49 seat majority.

Three quarters of Senate seats up for re-election this year are held by Democrats, many competing in states Mr Trump won in 2016.

That means the Democrats have to somehow hold most of their current seats and pick off a handful of Republican incumbents if they want to secure control - a tall order.

Turnout is expected to be key, with both sides pushing hard to energise their base in a bid to drive voters to the polls.

The Democrats held a double-digit lead over Republicans in polls tracking enthusiasm earlier in the year, but the gap shrunk markedly after the heated Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation row.

Mr Trump appears to have decided that immigration is the crucial issue that will turn out the coalition of voters that handed him an unlikely victory in the 2016 election.

The US president has framed migrant caravans approaching through Central America as an existential crisis for country, calling it an “invasion” and dispatching more than 5,000 soldiers to the border.

The approach has drawn a push back from some in his party, with Paul Ryan, the top Republican in the House, reportedly urging Mr Trump to focus more on the booming US economy, which has surpassed 3 per cent growth.

Mr Trump has dropped hints that the Democrats could take the House, saying a number of times that there were too many candidates for him to campaign with personally – a possible excuse if things do not go his way.

If the Democrats do get their hands on at least one of the two bodies that make up the US Congress it could have a significant impact on the next two years of Mr Trump’s presidency.

Firstly, it would mean the party could block legislation proposed by the president. Majority votes in both the Senate and the House are needed to pass laws.

Secondly, it could lead to a string of damaging congressional investigations being launched by House committees controlled by the Democrats, on everything from Mr Trump’s tax returns to the business interests of his family.

Polls suggest a split Congress is likely, with Democrats holding the House and Republicans holding the Senate. 

However forecasters have urged caution, noting that a string of razor-tight races, the possibility of a record turnout and polling limitations laid bare in 2016 all make predictions impossible.

Auto update

Donald Trump emails...
(See 1:39pm...!)


I am forwarding you an email I sent on November 8, 2016…

I asked all of our supporters across America to make ONE FINAL CONTRIBUTION to help in the most important races that would decide the election, and ultimately, the fate of our nation.

Donald Trump amid a cheering crowd on Monday evening in Indiana
Over 500,000 supporters stepped up. And if they never did, I would not be writing to you today as your President.

I will never forget these patriots.

So today I ask you to make one more EMERGENCY contribution and again be remembered as someone who believed in us despite the media’s predictions.

Beto O'Rourke says first time voters will decide the election
More from Nick Allen in El Paso, Texas at a polling station with Beto O'Rourke.

Mr O'Rourke said he thought first time voters would propel him to victory over Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

He said: "I'm so grateful to all of these first time voters who are going to decide this election.

"Voting among those aged 18 to 29 is up 500 per cent in Texas from the last midterm election. I can't count how many people have come up and said this is the first election they will vote in.

"We just met a young man right now who said 'You're the first person I ever voted for, so it feels good, feels really good."

Beto O'Rourke outside the polling station at El Paso Community College-Rio Grande Campus
Mr O'Rourke planned to spend the rest of election day going to polling locations and bringing food and water to volunteers.

"Then after the clock strikes 7.01pm and the polls close we'll get together as a family and look at some of the returns," he said,

After voting Mr O'Rourke and his wife Amy walked their children to school nearby, stopping to greet voters along the way.

Turning to his young son Mr O'Rourke said: "What do you make of all this? It's a bit nuts ain't it?"

Beto O'Rouke votes in Texas - Says he "feels" victory
Beto O'Rouke, the Democrat candidate in Texas, the most closely watched senate race in the country, was up at the crack of dawn to vote, Nick Allen writes in El Paso, Texas.

Mr O'Rourke, coffee mug in hand, arrived with his family at a polling station at a community college a short walk from the Mexican border and the Rio Grande.

Beto O'Rourke arrives to vote in El Paso, Texas
Speaking after casting his ballot he said: "Texas is not going to be defined by our fears, we're going to be governed by our ambitions.

"We're going to be focused on the future. We just do not care about the differences between us right now. We want Republicans and Democrats and Independents alike to come together and do something great for this country

"That's what I've heard from the people of Texas over the last 22 months. That's what folks are voting for today."

Asked "Are you expecting to win?" Mr O'Rourke replied "Yes!"

He added: "I don't have a poll, I don't have a pollster. But I've traveled to every single county in Texas, listened to everybody, have so many amazing volunteers knocking on millions of doors, making that human to human connection that we're in such desperate need of at this moment of division in this country.

"It's bringing people together, I feel it. Yep, feels good."

Donald Trump says he would prefer a softer tone as president - but he has "no choice"

Joe Biden votes in Delaware: "This is the single most important election of my lifetime"
Joe Biden has just voted, at a high school near his home in Wilmington, Delaware.

He has been one of the most high-profile campaigners ahead of the midterms, and speculation is growing that he will run for the presidency in 2020.

I don't know and I still don't know.

I think I'll make a decision in early January.

Joe Biden, campaigning back in March for Conor Lamb in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania
Asked when he'll make a formal announcement of his decision, he says - again - that he doesn't know.

This is the single most important election of my lifetime.

It's not just about single issues, it's the values of the country. I really believe this.

Politics has got too nasty. It's too base. This appeal to nativism, nationalism - phony nationalism - racism; it has to stop. We have to put some brakes on it.

Biden is asked how he thinks it'll go today.

He says he supports Nancy Pelosi as the House leader, saying she has "done a hell of a job", but that it's for them to decide.

I'll be dumbfounded it we lose the House. I think we'll pick up six governor seats in the Mid West.

I hope Brett in Tennessee will pull it out. I think we're still in play for the Senate - I'd say it's 50:50.

I think we'll see a number of Republicans, when this is over, distance themselves from Trump in terms of the harsh rhetoric.

He says he thinks there a lot of really good candidates for 2020 - mentioning Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans.

Joe Biden and Barack Obama, as Obama presented his vice president with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, in January 2017
And how does Joe Biden spend election night?

With my family, watching on a big TV.

I've already picked up the phone and spoke to around 25 candidates, wishing them well.

I don't think Trump learns lessons. He has one speed; what is good for Donald Trump. It doesn't matter.

Asked if he thinks Trump will challenge the legitimacy of the vote if he loses, he laughs.

Of course he will! He's still arguing over inauguration crowd sizes! He's... he's an interesting guy.

Andrew Gillum: "I voted for me!"
Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, has just voted with his wife. He's brought his children along.

He is hoping to be the first black governor of Florida.

Us winning tonight will send a message to Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis that the politics of hatred and division has ended. We'll worry about history later.


 GILLUM VOTES: A crowd gathers at a Tallahassee, FL church to watch gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum cast his v… https://www.pscp.tv/w/brGlCzE4NzQ0MHwxbW54ZU9NcU1FWkdYUd2xF0Mc87E5oLAX8dTPglPN2ERrphceXSBdK6-JHVc= …

7:04 AM - Nov 6, 2018
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He continues:

We're extremely excited. This has been a long journey - 21 months, across the country.

We were there yesterday in the Pan Handle, talking to folks who might not vote for me, but that's OK - I want them to know we plan to work on their behalf too.

We're going to grow an economy where people can work one job rather than two or three to make ends meet. Where folks can earn, and take a vacation every once in a while.

When we talk about a recovery, we want a recovery for everyone, not just the few.

Tears in Texas for Beto
Pamela Aguirre, 77, is in tears on MSNBC as she talks about why she's voted for Beto O'Rourke in Texas - he's aiming to oust Ted Cruz from the Senate.

Pamela Aguirre greets Beto O'Rourke outside the polling station in El Paso
"He's everything that Donald Trump isn't," she said, beaming through tears in her orange woolly hat, and proudly showing off her "Beto for Senate" t-shirt.

She's wheeled her oxygen tank down to the polling station in El Paso - O'Rourke's hometown.

Beto O'Rourke, campaigning in Texas
What would it mean for you if he won?

"We want him to win. And we'll be watching the tv tonight.

"It will mean so much - by gosh, that we still have a chance to have a decent country, with decent values, and decent people."

Andrew Gillum votes in historic Florida governor's race
Andrew Gillum has just entered the polling station in Tallahassee - the state capital of Florida.

He's aiming to become the first black governor of the state, in one of the most eagerly-watched - and vicious - campaigns in the US.

Andrew Gillum, campaigning in Florida
My colleague Rozina Sabur explains why it matters here.

She writes:

An anti-establishment Republican backed by Donald Trump and a black Democrat endorsed by Bernie Sanders will face each other in Florida's gubernatorial election in November.

The race, in the country's biggest swing state, is a sign of the increasing polarisation among voters during the Trump administration with sharp divides over issues like immigration, the environment and health care.

Florida is the country's third most populous state after California and Texas and will be a decisive vote in the next presidential election, where the US president won by just one percentage point in 2016.

America votes

Celebrities go to the polls
It's been a celeb-heavy election campaign, with Taylor Swift, Kanye West, Rihanna and Oprah all weighing in.

Cynthia Nixon, the Sex and the City actress who gave Andrew Cuomo a good run for his money in the race for New York governor, is urging people to get out and vote this morning.

Cynthia Nixon

 Get out and vote today everyone! If you don’t know where,  read this.

Michelle Obama

#ElectionDay is here! It’s time to vote—get to the polls and make sure every single person you talk to today is doing the same.

Find your polling place right now at http://whenweallvote.org . Because #WhenWeAllVote, we all do better.

5:41 AM - Nov 6, 2018
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 Chrissy Teigen is doing her best to get out the vote.

christine teigen

 yep. they're voting. you guys need to, too. #voteblue

Opened the comments to @chrissyteigen’s most recent insta post and why am I not surprised 🤦🏼‍♀️

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter
8:27 PM - Nov 4, 2018
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 And Cher - never one for emoji understatement or, indeed, any understatement at all - believes this election is "life or death".

   YouTube ‎@YouTube


 I have been alive through 13 Presidencies and I never thought my vote 🗳would be a matter of life or death. Given this administration’s disregard for pre-existing conditions, climate change, gun reform and so much more, it is life or death. 🙏🏻Please Vote🙏🏻 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU09-XS05jQ&feature=youtu.be …

2:01 PM - Nov 5, 2018
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Bernie Sanders emails...
Harriet -

I want to tell you something that will not come as a surprise to many of you. And that is this:

If turnout across the country is large today, if young people and working people come out and vote, then I believe Democrats will elect a number of progressive governors, state legislatures, will gain control of the House and possibly the Senate, as well.

If turnout is low today, then right-wing Republicans are going to keep control of many of the levels of government they currently occupy.

 Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders is up for re-election as senator for Vermont - a safe seat
So our job today, if you have not already, is to vote -- and to encourage the people you know to do the same.

Today’s election is the most important midterm election in the modern history of the United States.

Together, we can put an end to the reactionary Trump agenda and move our country forward to rebuilding the declining middle class. We can create a Congress which stands for economic, political, racial and environmental justice, not for oligarchy or authoritarianism.

Those are the stakes.

President Trump has the worst pre-midterm approval rating in modern history
- but will that translate to the "blue wave" the Democrats are so hoping for?

Ryan Struyk

 President Trump has the *worst pre-election approval rating in modern history* immediately before his first midterm election via new @CNN poll and Gallup trend:

W Bush 63%
Eisenhower 61%
Kennedy 61%
Nixon 58%
HW Bush 58%
Carter 49%
Obama 46%
Clinton 46%
Reagan 43%
Trump 39%

7:18 AM - Nov 5, 2018
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Polling stations now open
Polls start closing at 6pm ET (11pm UK) in Kentucky.

But things will really get rolling an hour later, when polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina and Virginia.

Another wave of numbers will begin coming in after 7:30pm (12:30am UK)  from North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

A big chunk of data will come after 8pm and 9pm ET when states such as Texas, New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania begin reporting.

The 11pm (4am UK) batch of states includes California, home to several competitive congressional races.

Alaska, where polls close at 1am on Wednesday (6am UK), will end the night.

Why is Pennsylvania so competitive? Our very own Tim Stanley reports from foggy Philly
Good morning from a foggy Philadelphia in east Pennsylvania. I’ve come here because the Democrats’ path to control of the House runs through this state. Nationally, the Dems need to flip 23 Republican controlled districts to win the House of Representatives – and four of those possible gains are located in this state.

Why is Pennsylvania so competitive? First, it’s a bellwether area. Generally speaking Pennsylvania is Democrat: we expect the Dems to win the governorship and a senate seat easily today. But Trump surprised everyone by winning the state in 2016, thanks to support from rural areas and “rust-belt” industrial towns. Pennsylvania is the archetype of “two Americas” politics: liberal suburbs and big cities vs the populist coalition. Advantage is thought to currently lie with the liberals, thanks in part to the horrendous shooting at a synagogue that has been blamed on Trump’s rhetoric.

But there’s a simpler reason why this state could send so more Democrats to the House this year: redistricting.

For the past seven years the Republicans have cheated. There’s no other way of putting it. In 2011 they redrew the congressional map to give themselves a huge advantage, burying islands of Democrat support in vast seas of Republican red, giving the Republicans 13 out of 18 seats in three straight elections. The state supreme court has now ruled that map unconstitutional. The new districts are geographically coherent and balanced, forcing Republican incumbents to defend new seats with new voters. Arguably, the Pennsylvania supreme court has handed the Democrats one-fifth of the representatives they need to take the House.

I’m going to have some coffee and go in search of a competitive district. See you later!

Read more from Tim:  The best result for America is if nobody wins the midterms

God, guns... and chainsaws: Meet the 'Mini-Trump' candidates hoping to storm midterms 
Their campaign adverts feature pledges of undying loyalty to Donald Trump, commitments to save America from socialism, and even lessons for their kids on how to build walls, writes Nick Allen, Washington Editor.

From the candidate promising to round up illegal immigrants in his own truck, to the one who dressed his toddler in a Make America Great Again onesie, they have echoed, and amplified, Mr Trump's rhetoric on every issue.

The Republican primary season earlier this year, when these candidates were selected, demonstrated Mr Trump's tightening stranglehold on the party, with politicians in his image being chosen over more established, moderate figures.

Going into the mid-term elections those firebrand "Trump mini-mes" will carry the Republican torch, hoping to be swept to victory by the president's fabled base.

Loyalty has already been rewarded, with Mr Trump lauding his imitators on Twitter, and travelling to their states for campaign events.

On Nov 6 they will discover whether their constituencies want homegrown versions of Mr Trump, or if one is enough.

Read the full article here

How women are shaping the US midterms

Here's how the House of Representatives looked prior to voting

Current Congress is most racially and ethnically diverse ever

Where has Trump been during his US midterm election tour?

Who is voting?
There are around 250 million Americans who are eligible to vote, but turnout in midterm elections is typically about 40 percent.

This is much lower than presidential elections, where turnout has hit around 60 percent in recent contests.

The elections will mark the first nationwide vote since Russia targeted state election systems in the 2016 US presidential race but federal, state and local officials have sought to reassure the public that their voting systems are secure.

So far, there have been no signs that Russia or any other foreign agency has tried to launch cyber-attacks against voting systems in any state, according to federal authorities.

For Donald Trump and the Republicans something is rotten in the suburbs of Virginia
For Donald Trump and the Republican Party it seems there is something rotten in the suburbs of Virginia, writes Nick Allen, Washington Editor.

Going into the midterm elections, marking Mr Trump’s first two years in the White House, nowhere should be more staunchly Republican than the state’s Loudon County.

 Republican Barbara Comstock waves to constituents during the annual Haymarket Day parade in Haymarket, Virginia
Republican Barbara Comstock waves to constituents during the annual Haymarket Day parade in Haymarket, Virginia CREDIT: ALEX WONG/GETTY
In this, the wealthiest of all America’s 3,007 counties, average income is $134,464. A Confederate statue stands proudly in the middle of Leesburg, its main town. The headquarters of the National Rifle Association is a short drive away.

But amid the leafy cul-de-sacs rebellion is stirring. On the manicured lawns, Democrat signs are proliferating like rapacious weeds.

Read the full article here.

'Betomania' erupts in El Paso, Texas as Ted Cruz maintains narrow lead in polls
It's going down to the wire in the Texas senate race, probably the most watched individual contest of the midterms, Nick Allen writes in El Paso, Texas.

El Paso, a sleepy city on the Mexican border, is the home town of Beto O'Rourke, the Democrat candidate.

"Betomania" erupted on Monday night as Mr O'Rourke held his final election eve rally at a university there.

The skateboard loving, former punk rocker was introduced by a Mariachi band and then bounded on stage, high-fiving supporters.

As he spoke Mr O'Rourke was drowned out by cheers. Some in the packed auditorium were weeping as they waved "Viva Beto" signs.

"We are days away from achieving something incredible in Texas," Mr O'Rourke, said, his voice hoarse from months of campaigning. "If we keep this up then tomorrow night we will be celebrating the victory of our lifetimes."

He called it an election that "will define the future not just of Texas, but of this country, not just this generation, but every generation that follows". With a thumbs up he shouted: "Let's win this!"

Outside the rally Mr O'Rourke told journalists he would campaign until the last minute.

Putting his arm around his wife Amy, he said: "We're giving it all we've got, as we have done from the very first day."

 US Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke and his wife Amy Sanders
US Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke and his wife Amy Sanders  CREDIT: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY
Jaymee Rivas, a student in the crowd, said: "It was very emotional. Being a millennial he gives me so much more hope than I recently had."

Nearly five million people have already cast ballots in early voting in Texas amid record turnout.

Polls show Mr O'Rourke three points behind Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, in a state where a Republican loss had, until recently, been unthinkable.

Mr Cruz's final day events included a stop at the Redneck Country Club, a saloon in suburban Houston

He called Mr O'Rourke a "crazy left wing activist" to chants of "Veto Beto".

Mr Cruz, 47, said: "The far left is angry and they are coming after jobs, they are coming after freedom, they are coming after security.

"The economy in the state of Texas booming. Who in their right mind would want to screw it up?"

Mr O'Rourke built a $70 million war chest, becoming the best funded US senate candidate in history, and vastly outspending Mr Cruz in what is the most expensive senate race of 2018.

The polls are open - and the queues are long
At 6am EST, Americans began entering polling stations to vote in the 2018 midterm elections.

They mark the first major voter test of Donald Trump's presidency, with control of Congress at stake.

As polling stations opened around 20 minutes ago on the East Coast, Republicans were keenly aware that losing their majority will hamstring his political agenda over the next two years.

Even at 6am in Indiana, there were huge queues at stations as people waited to cast their vote before heading to work.

View image on Twitter
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Matt Hines
 It’s Election Day and I’m in line at 6:05 AM.....probably should have voted early.  It seems to be a great turnout at the polls both early and late. #VoteTuesday

03:17 - 6 Nov 2018
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Key issue five: immigration
Immigration has been a pillar of the Trump presidency.

Harriet Alexander, The Telegraph's US Correspondent, reports on travel bans, immigration in numbers and one of the most contentious topics of his time in the White House - the Mexico-US border wall.

Key issue four: foreign policy
Perhaps the most explosive strand to Donald Trump's presidency has been his approach to foreign policy.

From tearing up the US-Iran deal to his commitment to wipe out Islamic State and from the dramatic shift in diplomacy with North Korea to the lingering issue of alleged Russian collusion, The Telegraph's US Editor Ben Riley-Smith analyses the president's tenure so far.

Key issue three: abortion
With Americans divided either side of the abortion debate, the liberal left are rising against Mr Trump and his supreme court - the most Conservative for decades.

Rozina Sabur, The Telegraph's Washington Correspondent, reports on the pro-life and pro-choice arguments from the only abortion clinic left in Kentucky.

Key issue two: trade
Almost two years ago, The president entered the Oval Office and vowed to shake up American trade.

The Telegraph's US Editor Ben Riley-Smith reports on how Mr Trump has remained true to his word.

Key issue one: gun control
During Donald Trump's presidency, there have been a number of high-profile mass shootings, including the Las Vegas and Parkland massacres.

Here, The Telegraph's Washington Editor Nick Allen takes a look at the emotive issue of gun control in the US.

US midterms 2018: Polling times
Here are the timings, state-by-state, of when polling stations open and close for the midterms:

Show more
How security concerns over electoral machines could undermine midterms
As Texans were casting their early ballots last week for today's midterm elections, a few of them encountered something disturbing, writes Laurence Dodds, US Tech Reporter.

While inputting their choices on the electronic voting machines used in about a third of Texas's counties, they had chosen Democrats for every position – but when asked to check their ballot at the end of the process, they found some of their votes had been switched to the Republicans.

Read the full article here.

Historical record of midterm elections
Disgruntled voters often use midterm elections to punish the party in power. The president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House and two in the Senate in every midterm since the American Civil War.

Democratic President Bill Clinton faced a six-year battle to get his policies through Congress when the Republicans took control of both the House and Senate in 1994.

The Democrats retook both chambers in 2006 – allowing President Barack Obama to push through his policy agenda for the first two years of his presidency.

 Barack Obama's agenda was curtailed by Republicans once they regained the House and Senate
Barack Obama's agenda was curtailed by Republicans once they regained the House and Senate CREDIT: AFP
However, the Republicans won back the House in 2010 which placed a significant curb on his ability to pass key legislation for the rest of his time in office.

In 2014, the Republicans also regained control of the Senate, boosting their House majority to its largest since 1929 along the way.

Democrats are currently enjoying an eight-point lead in polls  and with a record number of women, veterans and ethnic minorities running for office, the face of the US Congress could look very different in January.

However, the Democrats' success is based on the party's ability to mobilise their base:  the midterm electorate is traditionally whiter, older and more conservative.

What are the key issues deciding the races?
The economy, immigration and impeachment are the issues getting most play on the campaign trail.

The US economy is booming, with low unemployment rates and rising wages. However Mr Trump's tax cuts for corporations have increased the country's deficit by 33 per cent in the last year to $895 billion.

Immigration is a divisive issue, with Democrats keen to highlight the Trump administration's decision to separate migrant children from their parents as part of its "zero-tolerance" policy. They hope it will entice younger voters and minorities to vote against the president's party.

Republicans have warned Democrats would like to see immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) officials scrapped, which they say will lead to weak borders as they appeal to voters.

Ultimately, this election will be seen as a temperature test for Mr Trump ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

This has already played out in this summer's primaries - where party members pick their candidates - with pro-Trump, anti-establishment figures winning against the Republican's old guard.

On the Democrat side, populist progressives who are vocal in their opposition to the president - even calling for his impeachment - have been gaining ground on the party's centrists.

How do midterms work and how will Trump be affected?
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be voted on in November. Representatives serve two-year terms so the entire house will face re-election in 2020.

Some 35 out of the Senate’s 100 seats will be on the ballot and 36 state governors are up for election. Senators hold six-year terms.

 Donald Trump speaks during an Ohio Republican Party State Dinner in Columbus, Ohio
Donald Trump speaks during an Ohio Republican Party State Dinner in Columbus, Ohio CREDIT: MADDIE MCGARVEY/BLOOMBERG
There are also a number of state-wide and local offices being elected on the same day.

How will they affect Donald Trump's presidency?
The elections will shape US politics for at least the next two years.

A Republican-controlled Congress will make the final two years of Mr Trump’s first term much smoother – giving him the power to continue funding his border wall with Mexico, pass further tax cuts and make another attempt to repeal Obamacare.

If Democrats regain control, they will fiercely oppose a number of Mr Trump's key policies. If they win enough seats, the Democrats could kill the Republican legislative agenda on Capitol Hill.

A Democratic majority would also see the party gain seats on Congressional committees with the power to investigate the Trump administration.

 Donald Trump pauses while speaking during a rally in Springfield, Missouri
Donald Trump pauses while speaking during a rally in Springfield, Missouri CREDIT: NEETA SATAM/BLOOMBERG
This year's state-wide races are incredibly important too, since they will give the party in office power over the 2021 redistricting process - the system by which voting areas are decided.

Republicans are most likely to lose control of the House of Representatives as all 435 seats are up for election. Dozens of Republican representatives are retiring and the Democrats only need around 24 more seats to take control of the lower chamber.

Mr Trump's party is likely to retain its majority in the Senate as only 35 of the 100 seats are up for election, 26 of which are already held by Democrats.

Democrats would have to win all its Senate races and pick up two Republican seats in order to swing the majority - a tall order.

Why this year's congressional elections matter
November's midterm elections will mark two years since Donald Trump's shock election victory – the first test of how his Republican party is faring in the eyes of the American public.

The midterms is the name given to the combination of elections for the US Congress, governorships and local races that take place every two years.

Republicans currently control the House of Representatives and the Senate – the two chambers which make up the US Congress. But pundits have suggested the elections may see a so-called “blue wave” of Democrats sweeping into power.

A liberal base hoping to derail Mr Trump's agenda has energised activists in key races, out-fundraising and out-polling a host of Republican incumbents.

 Donald Trump points at the crowd at the end of his rally on Monday
Donald Trump points at the crowd at the end of his rally on Monday CREDIT: JEFF ROBERSON/AP
The elections mark the mid point in a president's four-year term – and this year they will be held on Tuesday November 6.

Although Mr Trump is not on the ballot, in many ways the results will be seen as a referendum on his accomplishments and how voters feel about the US president.

Turnout by young voters in Tennessee surged dramatically, the Tennessean reported.

In early voting, 98,000 people ages 18 to 29 cast ballots - seven times the 12,800 who voted in 2014, according to data from the group TargetSmart.

Tennessee is where pop star Taylor Swift made a plea for fans to vote, endorsing Democrat Phil Bredesen in a hotly contested Senate race against Republican Marsha Blackburn.

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30m ago
Technical difficulties forced voters to use paper ballots at some precincts in Gwinnett county, Georgia, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported.

The machines used to check voters in at their precincts were down for a time at three sites, according to the paper.

The county, the most diverse in Georgia, has been the target of lawsuits for its high rate of rejecting absentee ballots.

The troubles led to long lines, as voters began to cast their ballots in the razor thin governor’s race between Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp.

Updated at 4.13pm GMT
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35m ago
 Oliver Laughland Oliver Laughland
In Georgia, a closely watched gubernatorial race between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp is expected to come down the wire. With record early voting in the state, canvassers for Abrams were out until dusk on Monday evening in Atlanta’s low income black neighborhoods urging as many people as they could to get out to vote, despite the rain that was forecast.

 From left to right: Osunanmi Akinsegun-Oyewole, 35 Sanae Lahgazi Alaoui, 23 Assata Aminifaa, 33
 From left to right: Osunanmi Akinsegun-Oyewole, 35 Sanae Lahgazi Alaoui, 23 Assata Aminifaa, 33 Photograph: Tom Silverstone
Abrams, who will become the first African American female governor in America if elected, has pushed hard to get out the vote in communities with low turnout in prior elections.

Canvasser Assata Aminifaa, 33, who did not vote in 2016, said the response she had encountered since she began knocking on doors had been overwhelming.

“They didn’t really feel that their voice mattered before. But now we have someone that is listening to what you think. If you’re not going to vote, other people control your reality and what’s going to happen in your life. And a lot of people haven’t thought about it like that [before],” she said.

As Aminifaa and her group of two other canvassers knocked on doors, many people said they planned to line up to cast their ballot. One construction supervisor, who did not want to be named, said he planned to give his crew the day off to go and vote.

“It’s too important not to,” he said, confirming he planned to vote for Abrams.

Updated at 4.00pm GMT
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35m ago
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43m ago
Puerto Ricans turn out in Florida
Richard Luscombe reports from Kissimmee, Florida:

Most of the campaign signs are in Spanish outside the Robert Guevera community center in Kissimmee, Florida, where the tailwinds of Hurricane Maria 14 months ago appeared to still be blowing as voters arrived at the polls early on Tuesday.

The population of the Buenaventura Lakes, or BVL as it’s known to locals, is strongly Puerto Rican, and Donald Trump’s response to the aftermath of the devastating hurricane and denial of the official death toll on the island were uppermost in many people’s minds, according to US congressman Darren Soto, who showed up to encourage voters.

“Without question the deaths of 3,000 fellow Puerto Ricans are on the hearts and minds of the 1.2 million of us here in Florida and is one of the big factors in the higher turnout,” Soto, the state’s first elected congressman of Puerto Rican descent, told the Guardian.

 Voters wait in line to cast their ballots at John F Kennedy Library in Hialeah, Florida on 6 November.
 Voters wait in line to cast their ballots at John F Kennedy Library in Hialeah, Florida on 6 November. Photograph: Cristóbal Herrera/EPA
Voters were more blunt. “Trump is a racist pig,” said Carmen Colon, 71, explaining why she voted Democrat right down the ticket, including for Andrew Gillum, the Tallahassee mayor who’s aiming to become the first black governor of Florida, and Bill Nelson for US senator.

“The president didn’t want to help. Trump just wants to make America white again. He’s stupid,” she said.

Soto, facing his own re-election battle, shook hands with supporters and encouraged them to vote for “healing”, observing that the packed community center parking lot was in stark contrast to poor turnout of the 2014 midterms.

“People are fired up. It’s a race between love and hate, a United States and divided States,” he said. “It’s a race about respect for the Hispanic community, and really for all communities. Over the last two years we’ve seen the country morph into a horrible visage of itself that we don’t recognize.”

Updated at 3.58pm GMT
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51m ago
Here’s a new election day cartoon from Rob Rogers, the cartoonist fired by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette after a series of cartoons skewering Donald Trump.

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

Rob Rogers

 GET OUT AND VOTE! Our future depends on it. http://robrogers.com/2018/11/06/vote-for-democracy/ … #Trump #ElectionDay #Midterms2018 #Democrats #BlueWave2018

6:00 AM - Nov 6, 2018
399 people are talking about this
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Updated at 3.30pm GMT
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55m ago
The stormy weather across the south today has disrupted voting in some locations.

The storms have caused power outages, forcing voters to use paper ballots instead of electronic machines, the Associated Press reported.

In Tennessee, 20,000 customers were without power in Knox County. Tennessee coordinator of elections Mark Goins told the AP the polling places that had electricity knocked out are operating on generators and have emergency ballots ready for voters.

At a polling place in Knoxville, Tennessee at Cedar Bluff middle school, power was out and backup generators had also failed, CNN reported. Citizens were voting by paper ballot outside of the darkened building.

Updated at 3.28pm GMT
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1h ago
You tell us how you're voting and why
Rachel Obordo Rachel Obordo
Guardian readers have been in touch about how they’re voting and the reasons why.

For Lynne in New Mexico, universal healthcare and abortion rights are key issues.

“I’d like to see universal healthcare provided for all, I also think that government should keep its hands off of women’s healthcare and that includes abortion. I definitely want to see a complete separation of church and state. I’m an atheist and find many, if not most, of the issues that are objectionable in this election, such as abortion rights, gun control laws, lack of universal health care, tend to relate back to evangelical Christians figuring out ways to push their agenda through political means.

“There’s no way to tell at this point but I hope Trump gets a resounding thumping in this election. In this election I did something that I have never done in the past. I voted a straight Democratic ticket. After the last two years of watching even moderate Republicans pinch their noses and climb into bed with this nasty excuse of a president, I feel that the Republican party in general has been compromised in just about every way possible.”

In California, 48-year-old Vivek Sharma said he lives in a “red conservative island in the blue ocean” where the tension is palpable:

“This neighborhood went for Trump largely along racial lines – whites (the majority of the neighborhood) went for Trump and Asians (about 40% of the neighborhood) went for Hillary. We will see if the vote for governor breaks down in a similar way this time.

“My congressional district is overwhelmingly Democratic and while I voted for Judy Chu (Democrat) there is no doubt about the outcome. Similarly, I voted for Gavin Newsom (Democrat) for governor but there is no doubt about this outcome either. More difficult were the propositions that California voters are being asked to render a judgement upon. I largely voted along with the progressive wing of the Democratic party with one exception – Proposition 6 (the gas tax). I voted for repeal because I dislike the regressive nature of the tax. It overwhelmingly impacts the poor and I would like California to find a different way to finance transportation related infrastructure. Most progressives will vote for the gas tax (so against Proposition 6) but I believe that the affordability crisis in California cannot be addressed without dealing with the gas tax.

“I am hoping that there is an overwhelming repudiation of Donald Trump. However, I expect that while the Democrats will pick up the House and make progress in a variety of state level races, that there will be no decisive check on Trump.”

 A woman with her children votes at a polling station in Lorton, Virginia on 6 November.
 A woman with her children votes at a polling station in Lorton, Virginia on 6 November. Photograph: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images
Daniel from North Adams, Massachusetts, said controversy there centered on local ballot questions.

“I voted on local issues. There are three referenda on the ballot concerning hospital staffing, campaign finance and LGBTQ rights. Of course, Trump is the elephant in the room, but there are no strong Republican candidates on the ballot for any office, hence the concentration on local issues.

“I voted on the liberal ‘positive’ side of the three referenda on the ballot. I also voted for Elizabeth Warren to keep her in the Senate. I am undecided about whether I’d support her for the presidency in 2020. I do hope other progressive Democrats will step forward to challenge Trump.”

Updated at 4.13pm GMT
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1h ago
Beto O'Rourke casts his vote
Ed Pilkington Ed Pilkington
Beto O’Rourke just voted at the polling station around the corner from his house in El Paso, Texas. It is a sign of the superstar status he’s acquired in a little over a year of campaigning that this unlikely insurgent Democratic candidate, who is seeking to unseat Ted Cruz from a US senate seat, attracted more than 100 camera people and reporters from all over the world to watch him vote.

He came with his wife Amy and three kids. After voting, O’Rourke came to talk to us and told us why he was feeling good about today’s results and his chances of winning as a Democrat in a Texas senatorial race for the first time in 25 years. “I don’t have a poll to point to, I don’t have a pollster,” he said. “Just traveling all the counties in Texas, knocking on millions of doors. People are ready to be brought back together, I feel it. So yeah, it feels good today.”

Ed Pilkington
Beto O'Rourke has just cast his own ballot in a polling station near his home in El Paso, Texas. He tells us he's "feeling good" about tonight's result - "Texas is ready to come together" pic.twitter.com/IVDk3LDLhp

November 6, 2018
O’Rourke is banking on an army of young voters who have never voted before coming out to the polls. He said early voting among 18 to 29-year-olds in Texas was up 500% on 2014. “I’m so grateful for all these first-time voters,” he said.

Updated at 3.38pm GMT
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1h ago
Beto O'Rourke delivers final message in El Paso
Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke returned to his home town of El Paso and made the closing pitch that Americans have nothing to fear from immigrants.

“This community defines the positive story of immigration,” O’Rourke said Monday night, the Dallas News reported.

“From Chihuahuita to the Segundo Barrio to Sunset Heights where we live, we are a city of immigrants. We are made far stronger, we’re more successful, than we would have been without their presence. So we will continue to do what we have always done, be a nation of immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers.”

O’Rourke, a Democratic congressman, is taking on Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

The border patrol has announced a “crowd control exercise” for El Paso on Tuesday, drawing criticism of voter intimidation.

“No walls, no CBP exercise is going to keep us from honoring our laws, our commitments,” O’Rourke said, according to the Dallas News. “Why is this happening now? Why is the president stirring these issues up at this moment with 24 hours before we decide this election? I leave that to you to conclude.”

Updated at 3.17pm GMT
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2h ago
Former Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele said Republican candidates have failed to contest Donald Trump’s “inherent racism”.

“They feel they can peddle or at least stay silent on inherent racism, misogynistic language, and bad behavior. And somehow they think the American people are going to sit back and go, ‘Yeah, we want more of that,’” the ex-GOP big said Tuesday on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.

“Well, this election is going to be a very important tell as to which direction America wants to go in,” he said. “Based on the fact pattern right before us now, I think today could have a bigger impact in the long run than anything we’ve seen.”

Meanwhile, a few longtime Republicans are urging Americans to vote for Democrats.

Here’s former John McCain speechwriter and strategist Mark Salter:

Mark Salter
Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.

November 6, 2018
And here’s John Weaver, a strategist for McCain and John Kasich:

John Weaver
Please, today, white moderates cannot be part of going backwards in this country. Please join so many others: women, people of color & young people in rejecting hate & division. Vote for America's future. Be a #DemocratForADay I am #CountryOverParty #Courage

November 6, 2018
Updated at 3.15pm GMT
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2h ago
James Comey and Mike Pence pen contrasting op-eds
In an op-ed in the New York Times, former FBI director James Comey accused Donald Trump of “lying, misogyny, racism and attacks on the rule of law” and said the American people are “stirring” to oppose them in the midterms.

“The awakening is slow, but it is underway,” he wrote. “It falls to all of us to awaken the giant so that we shorten the period before we resume our upward march. Every American should be speaking about our nation’s values. Every American should be voting those values, which are far more important than even the most passionate policy differences.”

In another op-ed pitch Tuesday morning the vice-president, Mike Pence, wrote in USA Today that the election revolves around the question of whether Americans are better off than they were two years ago.

“The American economy is booming after only two years under our administration. This happened because of the president’s leadership and support from Republicans in Congress. Tuesday, we’re counting on the American people to re-elect Republicans to deliver even more results,” he wrote. “While Republicans have delivered results, Democrats have chosen a one-word agenda: Resist.”

Updated at 2.38pm GMT
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2h ago
Hillary Clinton urges voters to 'vote against radicalism'
Hillary Clinton said it was time for Americans to say “enough” after two years of watching the Trump administration “attack and undermine our democratic institutions and values.”

The failed 2016 Democratic presidential nominee urged voters to “vote against radicalism, bigotry and corruption” and “for fantastic candidates all over the country – including a historic number of women”.

Hillary Clinton
For the past two years, we've watched this administration attack and undermine our democratic institutions and values. Today, we say enough.

November 6, 2018
Hillary Clinton
If they win, they’ll do great things for America. Let's exercise our birthright as Americans today, put those people in office, and continue the hard work of saving our democracy.

It'll take all of us. Happy Election Day.

November 6, 2018
Updated at 2.33pm GMT
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2h ago
Former US attorney Preet Bharara branded Fox News host Sean Hannity a “liar” for campaigning onstage with Donald Trump after saying he would not do so.

Preet Bharara
Liar https://t.co/jIebTUDP3L

November 6, 2018
Updated at 2.37pm GMT
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2h ago
“Our country is doing awesome,” Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump said Tuesday morning on Fox and Friends.

The younger Trump said Republicans can expect wins if his father’s supporters turn out to vote, touting the strong economy.

“His name’s not on the ballot, but America’s winning. America is winning. We are winning at everything we do. Our economy’s winning, our military is winning, our veterans are winning. We’re winning with jobs, we’re winning with trade. We’re winning with everything right now guys,” he said. “If that army of Trump gets out there, if they vote today, we win.”

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2h ago
In a video posted on Instagram, Oprah Winfrey responded to racist robocalls that went out mocking her after she campaigned for Stacey Abrams for governor in Georgia.

“I just want to say, Jesus don’t like ugly,” Oprah said. “And we know what to do about that: vote.”

In the racist robocall, the fake Oprah said: “This is the magical negro Oprah Winfrey asking you to make my fellow negress Stacey Abrams the governor of Georgia,” the Washington Post reported.

Updated at 2.15pm GMT
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2h ago
Bob Hugin: rainy forecast is 'Republican weather'
Senator Bob Menendez, the New Jersey Democratic incumbent embattled after corruption charges, cast his ballot this morning in Harrison.

Ben Von Klemperer
Sen. Menendez casts his ballot, emerges with two thumbs up, at the Harrison Community Center in Harrison, NJ. 7:14am #njsen #menendez #hugin #midterms #midterms2018 pic.twitter.com/kpbcFBjEPq

November 6, 2018
Monday night, his opponent Bob Hugin was cheered by the rainy forecast, calling the rain “Republican weather”, according to the New Jersey globe. He was referring to the theory that rainy weather can depress turnout in a way that helps Republicans.

“I don’t know what it says about his thoughts about a democracy that he hopes that it pours so people don’t come out. I hope it pours with votes. There’s only one way to create a blue wave – and that’s to get in the water and come out to vote,” Menendez told reporters after casting his ballot Tuesday. “You can’t stop Trump from your couch. We can only do it by coming out to vote. So I hope everybody will come out to vote, rain, sleet, hail, whatever it is.”

Ben Von Klemperer
Sen. Menendez comments on rainy #ElectionDay forecast in NJ: “There’s only one way to create a blue wave, and that’s to get in the water and come out to vote.” Harrison, NJ. 7:17am #njsen #menendez #hugin #midterms #midterms2018 #electionday pic.twitter.com/CwCqFIlFrd

November 6, 2018
Rainy weather is forecast in much of the east and midwest.

Updated at 2.14pm GMT
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3h ago
Former chief White House strategist Steve Bannon will be hosting election night coverage on Gatway Pundit, a conspiracy-friendly rightwing site, the site says.

Bannon has spent election season hosting a series of poorly attended rallies and campaign events shunned by the Republican candidates they were meant to support.

Updated at 2.12pm GMT
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3h ago
Donald Trump aides are steeling themselves for special counsel Robert Mueller to drop his report in the Russia investigation as soon as Wednesday, though it’s more likely he’ll wait until later in the month, Vanity Fair reports.

Trump types are most worried about former aide Roger Stone and the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, the magazine says.

Updated at 2.12pm GMT
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3h ago
Fox News host Sean Hannity is drawing additional criticism for appearing onstage at a Donald Trump rally and praising the president, after promising he would not do so.

Michael Barbaro
If you work at Fox, and consider yourself a journalist, my lord. https://t.co/xHBpGHhPHf

November 6, 2018
Maggie Haberman
Still can’t get over Hannity denying he would be on stage the whole day, getting brought up by Trump, and then pointing to actual news reporters and calling them fake. https://t.co/DZTVw0FWqY

November 6, 2018
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

Reid Wilson

 Sean Hannity, making himself a liar and a joke

8:07 PM - Nov 5, 2018
20 people are talking about this
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John Bresnahan
 So if you campaign with Trump - like Hannity did tonight - and then have Trump on your show, is that an in-kind contribution?

7:53 PM - Nov 5, 2018
86 people are talking about this
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John AraVOTEsis 🇺🇸

 So Hannity lied, and Fox News lied. So what does Fox plan on doing about this?

Fabian Reinbold

#Hannity: 11:02 AM vs. 10:30 PM

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
8:44 PM - Nov 5, 2018

“I’ve done town hall meetings for 25 years of my life,” says Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC). “But what I saw over the last couple years since Trump came into office was a degree of polarization and friction and animosity that I’d never seen before.”

Sanford recalls one town hall in particular. It was a big crowd of about 1,000 people. But there was this one guy who was just “chewing my head off.” So Sanford went up afterward to talk to him.

“I’m from South Carolina,” Sanford told him. “You are, too. Your vocabulary just doesn’t fit with who I know you to be by reputation.”

As Sanford recalls it, the guy looked back at him and said, “Here’s the deal. If the president of the United States can say anything to anybody at any time on any subject, why can’t I?”

That, Sanford told me, “is the demon that either Trump has unleashed or exposed.”

The opposition to Trump inside the Republican Party has never fallen cleanly along ideological lines. Some of Trump’s strongest supporters are Northeastern Republicans, like Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie, whose ideological pragmatism eventually blurred into careerist pandering. Some of his biggest detractors are hardline conservatives whose long practice at withstanding public blowback for their ideas gave them the ballast to make their disgust with Trump’s behavior known.

Mark Sanford is as conservative as they come. He was first elected to Congress as part of the 1994 Republican Revolution, where he was named the most fiscally conservative member of the chamber; then to South Carolina’s governorship in 2002. He became a Republican hero for rejecting President Obama’s stimulus money. By 2010, the libertarian Cato Institute was calling him the best governor in America, and he was being talked about as a possible Republican nominee for president.

 Rep. Mark Sanford Holds Constituent Town Hall In South Carolina
Sanford waits for his introduction during a town hall meeting March 18, 2017. That’s not his sign, but he doesn’t seem too perturbed by it. Sean Rayford/Getty Images
Then came the collapse — the scandal, the disappearance to “hike the Appalachian trail,” the revelations of an affair. Yet Sanford made a comeback. He won a special election for the House in 2013. He ran unopposed for reelection in 2014. He won with 58 percent of the vote in 2016. In 25 years, he’d never lost an election, or even come all that close. His career was a testament to how far principled conservatism could take you in South Carolina politics.

But Sanford was a conservative, not a Trumpist. And as a conservative, Trump’s behavior offended him. He wrote a New York Times op-ed calling on Trump to release his tax returns, said the president “fanned the flames of intolerance,” and lamented his lack of constitutional knowledge. “Somebody asked about Article I powers and what he would do to protect them,” Sanford told reporters. “I think his response was, ‘I want to protect Article I, Article II, Article XII,’ going down the list. Of course, there is no Article XII.”

Of Trump, Sanford, a former Eagle Scout, said, “at some level he represents the antithesis, or the undoing, of everything I thought I knew about politics, preparation and life.”

In return, Sanford faced a primary challenge from Katie Arrington, a state legislator who sold herself as the loyal Trumpist Sanford refused to be. And Sanford could feel it working. “People would come up and they say, ‘Look, he’s the quarterback. You got to go with the quarterback.’”

On the night of the election, the president tweeted:

Donald J. Trump

 Mark Sanford has been very unhelpful to me in my campaign to MAGA. He is MIA and nothing but trouble. He is better off in Argentina. I fully endorse Katie Arrington for Congress in SC, a state I love. She is tough on crime and will continue our fight to lower taxes. VOTE Katie!

12:12 PM - Jun 12, 2018
25.2K people are talking about this
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It was enough. Sanford lost by 2,500 votes.

Sanford’s not alone. The small cadre of Sanford-style Trump skeptics face near-extinction. Many are retiring or being beaten. Those who remain are assimilating. They have quieted, or abandoned, their criticisms of the president after seeing the fates of their colleagues.

The next phase of the Trump era will begin in Washington with a Republican Party purged of most of the members of Congress who sought — and largely failed — to act as the party’s conscience. The question is whether it matters.

The fall of the not-quite-Trumpers
Whether Republican lose the House, the Senate, both, or neither, one thing is certain: The ranks of the not-quite-Trumpers will be thinned come January. The highest-profile skeptics are all retiring —Sen. Jeff Flake, Rep. Paul Ryan, and Sen. Bob Corker. Sanford lost his primary.

Behind them are an array of House and Senate Republicans who, though not quite never-Trumpers, are definitely not quite Trumpists, either.

In the New Yorker, George Packer profiles Rep. Ryan Costello (R-PA), a backbench House member who fits the brand. The piece is headlined “The demise of the moderate Republican,” but there’s no historically legible sense in which Costello is ideologically moderate. He’s a Paul Ryan conservative whose temperament and district led him to keep some distance from Trump.

“I don’t call myself an ‘anti-Trump Republican,’” Costello told Packer. “It’s not my thing. I’ll speak out about something if I disagree, but I don’t wish to be defined by that.” He’s the kind of Republican who criticized Trump after the violence in Charlottesville and the Helsinki summit but who tried mightily to avoid commenting on — much less condemning — the latest Trump tweet.

Costello is retiring, but he’s the kind of Republican who is most endangered this cycle: not Trumpy enough to thrill the right, not critical enough to win any real plaudits from the left. “Democrats berated him for complicity, Republicans attacked him for disloyalty,” laments Packer.

Democrats will unseat some true Trumpists, but they’re likelier to knock out (or force into retirement) candidates like Costello — Republicans who sit in blueish districts, who support Trump uneasily, criticize him occasionally, and draw at least some lines he can’t cross. As a result, whether Republicans win the House or lose it, they’re going to be returning with a Trumpier caucus.

Do not-quite-Trumpers do anything?
To Trump’s true critics — the ones who believe he’s a threat to both basic democratic norms and political decency — the not-quite-Trumpers are an endless disappointment. Corker and Flake could’ve joined with their comrade-in-lamentations Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) to form a never-Trump caucus that effectively controlled the Senate. If Trump wanted appointments cleared, if Mitch McConnell wanted judges confirmed, then Trump would have to give up his tax returns or sign legislation protecting Robert Mueller’s investigation from interference.

Nothing like that ever happened. In the eyes of the resistance, the not-quite-Trumpers posture and tweet and make sad sounds to reporters, but they don’t actually do anything. In fact, they supported Trump’s legislative agenda overwhelmingly.

Sad eyes, supportive votes. Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images
The not-quite-Trumpers see it differently. They support Trump’s congressional agenda because he supports their congressional agenda — holding up the judges they want to confirm in order to curb a president of their own party isn’t a trade they came to Washington to make. But they believe their presence puts boundaries on Trump’s most extreme actions.

After all, Trump didn’t fire Mueller, or even replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He clearly wanted to, but he didn’t. Perhaps that’s because Republicans like Flake were warning that could lead to impeachment. “Mr. President, please don’t go there,” he begged.

I polled a handful of congressional aides on this question. Perhaps predictably, the responses split across party lines: Republicans told me there’d been more, and more effective, behind-the-scenes containment of Trump than people realized. Democrats said the Republican resistance had been so feckless, and so thoroughly quashed, as to be mostly useless.

But mostly useless isn’t the same as completely useless (a stirring endorsement, I know). “It’s about pushing back against authoritarian and autocratic moves,” says Norm Ornstein, a congressional expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “That is where you see the Flakes and the Sasses a bit. If we lose them, or if those voices are muted, even though it may not make any difference in terms of votes, it becomes easier for Trump to frame these fights as partisan issues.”

My read of the situation is the GOP’s Trump skeptics probably did constrain some of Trump’s most illiberal impulses a year ago. But that’s over, and Trump knows it.

It’s Trump’s party now
What Trump has proven, decisively, is you can’t be in his party, oppose him, and expect to thrive. Corker and Flake decided to retire rather than fight it out as internal critics. Sanford lost his primary. Democrats are picking off the Republicans who held Trump at arm’s length.

Trump’s remaining Republican critics are changing their tune. Sen. Lindsey Graham, for instance, used to warn of a “constitutional crisis” if the president interfered with Mueller. Now he’s golfing with the president and giving him permission to fire Sessions after the election.

Mitt Romney used to call Trump a “fraud” who “inherited his business” and is “very, very not smart.” Since entering the Utah Senate race, he’s quieted his criticisms of Trump, and been rewarded for it:

Donald J. Trump

 .@MittRomney has announced he is running for the Senate from the wonderful State of Utah. He will make a great Senator and worthy successor to @OrrinHatch, and has my full support and endorsement!

6:21 PM - Feb 19, 2018
27.3K people are talking about this
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After the midterm, “expect the GOP to be more Trumpist,” says Sarah Binder, a political scientist at the Brookings Institution. “But it’s also possible, if it’s a strong night for Democrats, that at least some Republicans grow more cautious about Trump and his electoral prospects in 2020.”

If the midterm election ends in a rout for Republicans — if they lose 55 House seats and unexpectedly collapse in the Senate — perhaps a new not-quite-Trump caucus composed of endangered 2020ers like Colorado’s Cory Gardner and temperamental opponents like Romney might emerge.

But if the midterm ends in a stalemate where Democrats narrowly take the House and Republicans gain seats in the Senate, and particularly if it ends with Republicans defying expectations and keeping control of both chambers, we will see Trump unleashed. He’ll have nothing to fear from his own party, and if Democrats take the House, he’ll be delighted to provoke confrontation with Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It’s an article of faith in the White House that impeachment proceedings would backfire on Democrats, and so Trump may see actions that court such a response as a win-win.

Since winning office, Trump has often talked like an authoritarian, but he mostly has refrained from acting like one. But as his administration gets purged of skeptics and his party gets purged of opponents, it’s possible that could change.

Similarly, a Trumpier Republican Party now means a Trumpier Republican Party in the future. “One of the most important questions of American politics right now is whether Republicans will ‘snap back’ if Trump is defeated in 2020, or whether they will remain the voice of authoritarian populism,” says political scientist Yascha Mounk. “The fewer traditional conservatives there are in the party, and especially in elected office, the bleaker the prospects for leaving Trumpism behind once Trump is gone.”

When I talked with Sanford, he was comfortable with his loss but depressed by the way he saw his party becoming a cult of personality.

“If you read [Friederich] Hayek’s book The Road to Serfdom,” he said, “what it talks about is how in open political systems, over time, they become more and more dysfunctional, to the point that the electorate gets frustrated. Then a strongman comes along and says, ‘Look, I’ll take care of these problems for you.’ You’re going to give him a couple freedoms, but ‘I’ll take care of these problems for you.’ And the deal is struck. That’s obviously the story of the rise of Hitler.”

“We’re playing with some of those same things,” he says.

About Author Hamza 'Bashir Ahmad

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